# Fed Holds With Two Dissents, Rates Fall to 7.24%, Pending Sales Set Another Low: Texas and DFW Market Report for November 2, 2026

> The 30-year rate fell to 7.24%, the Fed held at 3.75%–4% with two dissents, and Redfin pending sales hit a new low. What it means for Texas sellers, investors.

**Author:** [Corey Dearmont](https://diamondacquisitions.biz/team/corey-dearmont) — Co-Founder & CEO
**Published:** 2026-11-02
**Category:** Market reports
**Canonical:** https://diamondacquisitions.biz/insights/texas-dfw-market-report-2026-11-02

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Mortgage rates fell for a second straight week, but buyers still are not coming back. Freddie Mac's 30-year average dropped to 7.24%, its lowest reading of the month, the Federal Reserve held rates steady with two members voting to raise them, and Redfin reported U.S. pending home sales at yet another record low. This is the fifth edition of our weekly Texas and DFW market report. We compare against [last week's report](/insights/texas-dfw-market-report-2026-10-26) and flag what is new. No new DFW or Houston monthly sales data was released this week, so the local numbers below carry forward from September and are labeled that way.

## What moved this week: the 30-year rate slipped to 7.24%

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at **7.24% on October 29, 2026**, down from 7.32% on October 22 and up from 6.17% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%, down from 6.68% and up from 5.41% a year ago. Freddie Mac said the 30-year rate fell again to its lowest level of the month, which modestly improves purchasing power for prospective buyers.

Two weekly declines in a row are worth noting, but the move since October 15, when the average was 7.40%, is 16 basis points. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields, especially the 10-year Treasury, more closely than the Fed's policy rate, and the survey lags the market by a few days. Treat it as a modest easing, not a turn.

### What 7.24% does to a monthly payment

On a $300,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest is about **$1,832** a month at last year's 6.17%, about **$2,061** at last week's 7.32%, and about **$2,044** at 7.24%. That is still roughly $212 more every month, or about $2,550 a year, than a year ago, before taxes, insurance, and any mortgage insurance. Versus last week, the payment fell by only about $17. These are our own calculations on Freddie Mac's survey rates.

## Week-over-week: what changed since October 26

| Measure | Oct 22 | Oct 29 |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 7.32% | 7.24% |
| 15-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 6.68% | 6.60% |
| Monthly P&I on $300,000, 30-year | about $2,061 | about $2,044 |
| Redfin pending sales, U.S. (4 weeks ending) | 281,749 (Oct 18) | 276,352 (Oct 25) |

## The Fed held, with two votes to hike

As we previewed last week, the Fed met October 27–28. The Committee kept the target range at 3.75%–4%, by a 10–2 vote, and the two dissenters wanted a quarter-point increase. The September increase was the Fed's most recent move. We do not forecast Fed decisions, and markets price December's odds differently from day to day. For the full breakdown of the statement and the sell-or-wait trade-offs, read our dedicated piece on [the Fed's October hold and what Texas sellers should decide before December](/insights/fed-holds-two-dissents-hike-texas-sellers-december-2026). For the mechanics of how a hike reaches a DFW buyer, see [what a Fed rate hike could mean for DFW real estate](/insights/fed-rate-hike-dfw-real-estate).

## National demand: Redfin's pending sales fall to a new low

Redfin's report for the four weeks ending October 25, as covered by WRE News, said seasonally adjusted pending sales fell to **276,352**, down 15.9% from a year earlier and 1.8% from the prior week. That is the lowest level in Redfin's records, which begin in 2021, and a lower mark than last week's 281,749. Pending sales fell in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metro areas for the third week in a row.

Other figures in that report: active listings were 1,510,619, up 2.2% year over year, with 4.5 months of supply. The typical monthly housing payment was $2,786, up 10.7% from a year earlier, based on a 7.32% mortgage rate. The reported median sale price was $389,601, down 0.1% year over year. Note that Redfin's prior week showed a 0.2% gain, so the price trend is essentially flat and the sign flips with small revisions. We did not find Texas metro detail for this week's Redfin report, so we are not repeating last week's metro table.

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index, released October 20, showed September contract signings down 7.3% from August and down 11.3% from a year earlier, with the index at 66.0. Housing news outlets described it as the lowest reading in the index's history. NAR attributed the weakness to fast-rising mortgage rates. Two independent trackers agreeing on direction is a stronger signal than either alone.

## Texas jobs: a weak September and a lower forecast

The Dallas Fed's Texas Employment Forecast, released October 19, projects 2026 job growth of **0.9%**, with an 80% confidence band of 0.6% to 1.2%, or about 134,000 added jobs. Texas employment fell by 18,900 jobs in September, an annualized decline of 1.6%, while August growth was revised up to 2.3%. Government and construction led the losses, while manufacturing posted the strongest gains. The Dallas Fed's next forecast is scheduled for November 20.

Why it matters for housing: buyers qualify on income, and a softer labor market makes lenders and buyers more cautious. We covered the longer-run implications in [what the 0.9% job forecast means for Texas homeowners](/insights/texas-job-growth-forecast-cut-0-9-percent-homeowners-2026).

## Texas and DFW: the September baseline still stands

We carry forward the September data from [last week's edition](/insights/texas-dfw-market-report-2026-10-26), since October figures will not arrive until mid-November. Per the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M, as summarized by Norada Real Estate, the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington metro recorded 7,228 home sales in September (down 6.61% year over year), a median price of $379,990 (down 1.56%), and 34,501 active listings with 4.5 months of supply. The Houston Association of Realtors reported 7,030 single-family sales in September, down 5.7%, with a median price of $325,000 and 5.5 months of inventory. Those figures are one to two months old and, in some cases, reach us secondhand, so verify against the primary reports before relying on them. The direction, fewer sales, flat prices, and more supply, is consistent with the national pending-sales picture this week.

## What it means for sellers

1. **Price for the buyer you have.** With national contract signings at record lows and a payment near $2,040 on a $300,000 loan, buyers are shopping by monthly payment. Pricing to last spring's comps invites cuts.
2. **A one-week rate dip is not a reason to rush or wait.** Eight basis points moves a payment by about $17. If you are deciding between listing now and waiting for spring, count the carrying costs of waiting: taxes, insurance, utilities, upkeep. See [what a vacant house actually costs in Texas](/insights/vacant-house-texas-what-it-costs).
3. **Budget for concessions.** Seller-paid closing costs, rate buydowns, and repair credits are common asks. Subtract them from your net before comparing options.
4. **Condition matters more when financing is tight.** Appraisals and inspection requests make houses that need work harder to sell on the retail market.

If your house is in good shape and you can carry it, a Texas-licensed agent can price a listing for you. If it needs repairs, has a title or code problem, or you are on a deadline, a direct as-is sale can be simpler. Our [cash offer vs. listing breakdown](/insights/cash-offer-vs-listing-the-real-math) compares the two on net proceeds, and the [any-condition situations page](/situations/any-condition-texas) explains what we buy. When you are ready for a number, [tell us about your Texas property](/sell). Diamond Acquisitions is a direct cash buyer, not a real estate agent, and we do not list homes.

## What it means for investors

Soft retail demand makes the exit the hard part of a deal.

- **Hold the margin.** Our offer math on a typical flip is **ARV × 75–80% − repairs**, and 85–92% of ARV on clean, light-rehab deals. For a $300,000 after-repair value and $40,000 in repairs, that is a maximum offer of roughly $185,000 to $200,000. Falling contract activity argues for the conservative end.
- **Stretch the exit timeline.** Model a 90-day exit rather than 45 when pending sales are at record lows.
- **Underwrite the exit buyer's payment.** Work backward from what a retail buyer can afford near 7.2%, not from last year's comps.
- **Watch the job market.** A weak September in Texas payrolls is one data point, but a sustained decline would reach buyer income and rental demand. Our guide on [how to analyze a Texas rental property](/insights/how-to-analyze-a-texas-rental-property) shows how to stress-test rents.

For the broader framework, read our [Q4 2026 Texas investment property numbers](/insights/texas-investment-property-q4-2026-balanced-market). Investors who want to see deals as they come can browse the [investor marketplace](/investors).

## What we are watching next week

- Whether Freddie Mac's November 5 reading extends the two-week decline or reverses it.
- Redfin's next weekly report, to see whether pending sales have found a floor.
- The October jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and what it implies for December Fed speculation.
- Mid-month October housing data from TRERC and NTREIS for Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston.

*Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 22 and October 29, 2026); Federal Reserve FOMC statement (October 28, 2026); Redfin weekly housing market reports for the four weeks ending October 18 and October 25, 2026, the latter as covered by WRE News; National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index for September 2026 (October 20, 2026); Dallas Fed Texas Employment Forecast (October 19, 2026); Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M September 2026 data as summarized by Norada Real Estate; Houston Association of Realtors September 2026 data as reported by My Neighborhood News. Payment figures are our own arithmetic on Freddie Mac survey rates. This report is general information, not financial or investment advice.*