# Rates Fall a Third Week to 7.18%, October Payrolls Beat Forecasts, Pending Sales Stay at a Record Low: Texas and DFW Market Report for November 9, 2026

> The 30-year rate fell to 7.18%, October payrolls beat forecasts, and Redfin pending sales hit a new low. What it means for Texas sellers and investors.

**Author:** [Corey Dearmont](https://diamondacquisitions.biz/team/corey-dearmont) — Co-Founder & CEO
**Published:** 2026-11-09
**Category:** Market reports
**Canonical:** https://diamondacquisitions.biz/insights/texas-dfw-market-report-2026-11-09

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Mortgage rates fell for a third straight week, October hiring came in far above forecasts, and buyers still are not signing contracts. Freddie Mac's 30-year average dropped to 7.18%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 165,000 new jobs for October, and Redfin said U.S. pending home sales hit another record low. This is the sixth edition of our weekly Texas and DFW market report. We compare against [last week's report](/insights/texas-dfw-market-report-2026-11-02) and flag what is new. No new DFW or Houston monthly sales data was published this week, so the local numbers below carry forward from September and are labeled that way.

## What moved this week: the 30-year rate slipped to 7.18%

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at **7.18% on November 5, 2026**, down from 7.24% on October 29 and up from 6.22% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%, down from 6.60% and up from 5.50% a year ago. It is the third weekly decline in a row, and the 30-year rate has now fallen from 7.32% on October 22.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates generally follow more closely than the Fed's policy rate, was 4.84% at midday on November 5, according to the Associated Press. That was its lowest level since early September. It had risen above 5.30% in early October, the highest since 2002. For the longer story on that spike and what it did to rental math, see [our look at the 5% Treasury yield and Texas rental returns](/insights/treasury-yield-5-percent-texas-rental-math-2026). The survey lags the market by a few days, so treat this as a retreat from the early-October peak, not a confirmed turn.

### What 7.18% does to a monthly payment

On a $300,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest is about **$1,841** a month at last year's 6.22%, about **$2,044** at last week's 7.24%, and about **$2,032** at 7.18%. That is still roughly $191 more every month, or about $2,290 a year, than a year ago, before taxes, insurance, and any mortgage insurance. Versus last week, the payment fell by only about $12. These are our own calculations on Freddie Mac's survey rates. We walk through the full seller-side math in [this week's mortgage-rate piece for Texas sellers](/insights/texas-mortgage-rates-third-weekly-drop-7-18-percent-sellers-2026).

## Week-over-week: what changed since November 2

| Measure | Oct 29 / Oct 25 | Nov 5 / Nov 1 |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 7.24% | 7.18% |
| 15-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 6.60% | 6.57% |
| Monthly P&I on $300,000, 30-year | about $2,044 | about $2,032 |
| Redfin pending sales, U.S., change vs. a year earlier | down 15.9% | down 16.4% |
| Redfin median sale price, U.S. | $389,601 (down 0.1% y/y) | $388,604 (down 0.4% y/y) |
| Redfin active listings, change vs. a year earlier | up 2.2% | up 2.1% |

Redfin's weekly figures cover rolling four-week periods ending October 25 and November 1, and Redfin revises them, so small differences are noise.

## National demand: Redfin's pending sales set another low

Redfin's report for the four weeks ending November 1, as covered by Mortgage Professional America, said pending sales fell 0.6% from the prior four-week period and 16.4% from a year earlier, the lowest level in Redfin's records, which begin in 2021. Pending sales declined in every metro Redfin analyzed for the fourth straight week.

Other figures from that report:

- **Prices:** The median sale price was $388,604, down 0.4% year over year. Austin posted one of the largest metro declines, at 5.8%.
- **Price cuts:** 21.2% of listings had a price reduction, up from 20.6% a year earlier.
- **Supply:** Active listings were about 1.5 million, up 2.1% year over year, with 4.6 months of supply, up from 4.0 in the comparison period Redfin cited.
- **New listings:** Down 1.5% from the prior week to their lowest level since January, which suggests some sellers are pulling back too.
- **Speed:** 26.9% of homes went off the market within two weeks, down from 28%. Redfin did not report an average days-on-market figure in the coverage we found.
- **Payment:** The typical monthly housing payment was $2,777 at a 7.24% mortgage rate, down from a five-week high of $2,811 in early October.

Redfin's report quotes mortgage broker Matt Gouge of UMortgage saying buyers "are coming to terms with the current state of affordability and housing." That fits the data: demand is thin, supply is slightly higher than a year ago, and price cuts are getting more common.

## The October jobs report beat forecasts

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, November 6 that employers added **165,000 jobs in October**, well above the roughly 59,000 to 65,000 economists had forecast, with 84,000 in upward revisions to earlier months. The unemployment rate fell to **4.1%** from 4.2%. Professional and business services led with about 70,000 jobs, followed by health care at about 42,000. Hourly wages rose 3.1% from a year earlier, which many outlets noted lags inflation. Figures vary slightly by outlet, so check the BLS release for exact numbers.

Why it matters for housing: buyers qualify on income, so steady hiring helps. But it cuts both ways for rates, because the Federal Reserve also watches employment as it weighs its next move. The Fed held at 3.75%–4% on October 28 by a 10–2 vote, with two members preferring a quarter-point hike, and its next meeting is December 8–9. We do not forecast that decision. Our breakdown of [the October hold and what Texas sellers should decide before December](/insights/fed-holds-two-dissents-hike-texas-sellers-december-2026) has the on-the-record details.

This is national data. Texas-specific employment numbers come from the Dallas Fed, whose last forecast, released October 19, projected 0.9% growth for 2026. We covered it in [what the 0.9% job forecast means for Texas homeowners](/insights/texas-job-growth-forecast-cut-0-9-percent-homeowners-2026). The next forecast is scheduled for November 20.

## Texas and DFW: the September baseline still stands

We carry forward September data from [last week's edition](/insights/texas-dfw-market-report-2026-11-02), since October figures typically arrive in mid-November. Per the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M, as summarized by Norada Real Estate, the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington metro recorded 7,228 home sales in September (down 6.61% year over year), a median price of $379,990 (down 1.56%), and 34,501 active listings with 4.5 months of supply. The Houston Association of Realtors reported 7,030 single-family sales in September, down 5.7%, with a median price of $325,000 and 5.5 months of inventory. Those figures are one to two months old and reach us secondhand, so verify them against the primary reports before relying on them. The direction, fewer sales, flat to slightly lower prices, and more supply, matches this week's national pending-sales picture.

## What it means for sellers

1. **Price for the buyer you have.** With contract signings at record lows and a payment near $2,030 on a $300,000 loan, buyers shop by monthly payment. Pricing to last spring's comps invites cuts, and about one in five listings nationally already has one.
2. **A three-week rate slide is not a reason to rush or wait.** Six basis points moves a payment by about $12. If you are deciding between listing now and waiting for spring, count the carrying costs of waiting. See [what a vacant house actually costs in Texas](/insights/vacant-house-texas-what-it-costs).
3. **Budget for concessions.** Seller-paid closing costs, rate buydowns, and repair credits are common asks. Subtract them from your net before comparing options.
4. **Condition matters more when financing is tight.** Appraisals and inspection requests make houses that need work harder to sell on the retail market.

If your house is in good shape and you can carry it, a Texas-licensed agent can price a listing for you. If it needs repairs, has a title or code problem, or you are on a deadline, a direct as-is sale can be simpler. Our [cash offer vs. listing breakdown](/insights/cash-offer-vs-listing-the-real-math) compares the two on net proceeds, and the [any-condition situations page](/situations/any-condition-texas) explains what we buy. When you are ready for a number, [tell us about your Texas property](/sell). Diamond Acquisitions is a direct cash buyer, not a real estate agent, and we do not list homes.

## What it means for investors

Soft retail demand makes the exit the hard part of a deal.

- **Hold the margin.** Our offer math on a typical flip is **ARV × 75–80% − repairs**, and 85–92% of ARV on clean, light-rehab deals. For a $300,000 after-repair value and $40,000 in repairs, that is a maximum offer of roughly $185,000 to $200,000. Falling contract activity argues for the conservative end.
- **Stretch the exit timeline.** Model a 90-day exit rather than 45 while pending sales sit at record lows and 21% of listings carry a price cut.
- **Underwrite the exit buyer's payment.** Work backward from what a retail buyer can afford near 7.2%, not from last year's comps.
- **Watch metro differences.** Austin's 5.8% year-over-year price decline in Redfin's data is a reminder that Texas metros are not moving together. Our guide on [how to analyze a Texas rental property](/insights/how-to-analyze-a-texas-rental-property) shows how to stress-test each market.

For the broader framework, read our [Q4 2026 Texas investment property numbers](/insights/texas-investment-property-q4-2026-balanced-market). Investors who want to see deals as they come can browse the [investor marketplace](/investors).

## What we are watching next week

- Whether Freddie Mac's November 12 reading extends the three-week decline or reverses it.
- Redfin's next weekly report, to see whether pending sales have found a floor.
- October housing data from TRERC and NTREIS for Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston, expected mid-month.
- The October inflation report and other data the Fed will weigh before December 8–9.

*Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 29 and November 5, 2026), as reported by the Associated Press; Redfin weekly housing market report for the four weeks ending November 1, 2026, as covered by Mortgage Professional America (November 6); Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation for October 2026 (November 6), as reported by multiple outlets; Federal Reserve FOMC statement (October 28, 2026); Dallas Fed Texas Employment Forecast (October 19, 2026); Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M September 2026 data as summarized by Norada Real Estate; Houston Association of Realtors September 2026 data as reported by My Neighborhood News. Payment figures are our own arithmetic on Freddie Mac survey rates. This report is general information, not financial or investment advice.*