# Texas Home Prices Are Up Less Than 1% Since June 2022: The Break-Even Math If You Bought Near the Peak and Need to Sell in 2026

> Cotality says Texas home prices are up less than 1% since June 2022. See the break-even math for selling a house bought near the peak, plus 6 ways out.

**Author:** [Grant Sherrod](https://diamondacquisitions.biz/team/grant-sherrod) — Director of Acquisitions
**Published:** 2026-11-11
**Category:** For sellers
**Canonical:** https://diamondacquisitions.biz/insights/texas-home-prices-flat-since-2022-break-even-selling-math

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If you bought a Texas house in 2021, 2022, or 2023 with a small down payment, two reports published this month describe your situation better than any listing estimate will. Cotality's November home price report says Texas prices are **up less than 1% since June 2022**. And ICE's November Mortgage Monitor puts two Texas metros, Austin and San Antonio, among the five U.S. markets with the highest share of mortgages that are underwater.

Flat prices sound harmless. They are not harmless if you need to sell, because selling a house costs money, and for the last four years the market has not paid that bill for you. A homeowner who put 3.5% or 5% down near the peak can owe less than the house is worth on paper and still have to write a check at the closing table.

This guide covers what the two reports actually say, the break-even math on a real-sized Texas loan, and six ways out, including the ones that do not involve us.

**We are not attorneys, CPAs, loan officers, or housing counselors, and this is not legal, tax, or financial advice.** The loan examples below are illustrations built on round numbers. Your payoff, your house, and your options depend on your own loan documents, so confirm them with your servicer, a title company, and the licensed professionals named in each section.

## What the November 2026 reports say about Texas

### Cotality: Texas is one of three states that have gone nowhere since mid-2022

Cotality published its "US home price insights" report on November 3, 2026, covering data through September 2026. The points that matter for Texas owners:

- **Nationally**, single-family prices rose 1.7% from a year earlier and fell 0.3% from August.
- **Texas prices fell 0.4%** from a year earlier, one of a handful of states with an annual decline.
- **Since June 2022**, Cotality says Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey are up 30% to 31%, "while Washington, Colorado, and Texas are up less than 1%."
- **Dallas was down 1.0%** and **Austin was down 2.0%** from a year earlier. Cotality tied the Texas and Florida declines to costs beyond the mortgage, writing that "higher insurance and taxes often push total costs above borrowing limits."

Cotality's chief economist, Dr. Selma Hepp, said in the report that "more inventory and greater buyer bargaining power will keep home price growth subdued." That is a forecast from Cotality, not from us, and forecasts miss. The on-the-record fact is the four years behind us: a typical Texas house is worth about what it was in June 2022.

### ICE: Austin and San Antonio are in the top five for negative equity

ICE released its November 2026 Mortgage Monitor on November 9. Nationally, it is a good-news report: mortgage holders had $17.5 trillion in equity, a third-quarter record. The Texas details, as excerpted by the housing-data site Calculated Risk, are different:

- The highest negative equity rates among major markets were Cape Coral, Florida (11.2%), Lakeland, Florida (8.9%), **Austin (8.4%)**, **San Antonio (7.4%)**, and Tampa, Florida (6.1%).
- **Austin prices are 23.4% off their recent peak**, with about 44,000 underwater mortgages, the second-largest count among major markets.
- **Dallas had the largest count** of underwater mortgages among major markets, about 63,000, with prices 5.6% below their recent peak.
- ICE's home price index showed annual declines of 2.4% in Austin and 2.2% in San Antonio in October.

"Underwater" in these reports means the loan balance is higher than the estimated value. It does not count the larger group of owners who have a sliver of equity that would disappear into selling costs. That second group is who the math below is for.

## The break-even math: why "worth what I paid" still loses money

When you sell with a listing, the money between the contract price and your bank account goes to a few predictable places. We lay out every line in our [cash offer vs. listing breakdown](/insights/cash-offer-vs-listing-the-real-math). The short version for a typical Texas sale:

| Cost | Typical range |
|---|---|
| Agent commissions (when the seller pays both sides) | 5% to 5.5% |
| Buyer concessions (closing costs, rate buydowns) | 1% to 3% |
| Seller closing costs (owner's title policy, fees) | 1% to 2% |
| **Total before repairs, prep, and carrying costs** | **about 7% to 10.5%** |

Commissions are negotiable and concessions depend on the buyer, so treat this as a planning range. Using 8.5% as a middle figure, the rule of thumb is simple: **the sale price has to beat your payoff by about 8.5% just to walk away with zero.** Said the other way, if you owe more than about 91.5% of what the house will sell for, a listed sale probably costs you cash.

### A worked example: $350,000 purchase in June 2022

Take a $350,000 purchase in June 2022 at an illustrative 5.5% fixed rate, which is inside the range Freddie Mac's weekly survey reported that month. By November 2026 the owner has made about 52 payments.

| | 5% down, conventional | 3.5% down, FHA (upfront premium financed) |
|---|---|---|
| Original loan | $332,500 | about $343,700 |
| Monthly principal and interest | about $1,888 | about $1,951 |
| Balance after 52 payments | about $311,200 | about $321,600 |

Now sell that house in three different markets, each time with 8.5% in selling costs:

| Scenario | Sale price | Net after 8.5% costs | 5% down result | FHA result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat since purchase (the Texas statewide picture) | $350,000 | $320,250 | **about $9,100 to you** | **about $1,400 short** |
| 5.6% below peak (ICE's Dallas figure) | $330,400 | $302,300 | **about $8,900 short** | **about $19,300 short** |
| 23.4% below peak (ICE's Austin figure) | $268,100 | $245,300 | **about $65,900 short** | **about $76,300 short** |

Read the first row again. In a market that has not lost a dollar of value, the 5%-down buyer put in $17,500 at closing, paid down about $21,300 of principal over four years, and walks away with roughly $9,100. The FHA buyer owes money at the table. Nothing went wrong with the house. Flat prices plus selling costs did that.

Three cautions on these numbers. They are our arithmetic on round figures, not a quote. The metro percentages are averages, and a single house can sit well above or below them. And they leave out repairs, pre-listing prep, any months of late payments or escrow shortages added to the payoff, and the cost of carrying the house while it is on the market.

### How to run your own number in 15 minutes

1. **Get your payoff.** Ask your servicer for a payoff statement, not the balance on your monthly bill. The payoff includes accrued interest and any fees.
2. **Get a realistic sale price.** A comparative market analysis from a Texas-licensed agent is the right tool for a retail listing. Automated estimates are frequently off on houses that need work.
3. **Subtract 7% to 10.5%** for selling costs, plus any repairs you already know a buyer's inspector will find.
4. **Compare.** If the result is higher than the payoff, you have a sale. If it is lower, the gap is what you have to solve.

Our [cash offer vs. listing calculator](/tools/cash-offer-vs-listing) will do the side-by-side arithmetic once you have those figures.

## 6 ways out when the equity is thin

Listed roughly from least to most drastic.

### 1. Stay and keep paying, if you can afford to

If the payment is manageable and nothing is forcing a move, thin equity is a paper problem. Every payment retires principal. On the $332,500 loan above, the balance falls by about $5,700 over the next twelve months without any help from the market. Owners in this group should not sell to anyone, including us.

### 2. Call your servicer before you miss a payment

If the payment is the problem, the servicer's loss-mitigation department is the first call, and it is better made while you are current. Depending on the loan type, the options can include a repayment plan, a modification, or, on FHA and VA loans, programs specific to those agencies. A HUD-approved housing counselor will review your options at no charge. If you are already behind, read our guide to [your options when you are behind on a Texas mortgage](/insights/behind-on-mortgage-payments-texas-options), and if a sale date has been posted, [the Texas foreclosure timeline](/insights/texas-foreclosure-timeline) explains how fast the first-Tuesday schedule moves.

### 3. Rent it out and wait

If you have to relocate but the numbers do not allow a sale, renting can cover some or all of the payment while you keep paying down principal. Check four things first: your loan's occupancy terms, the cost of a landlord insurance policy, the loss of your homestead exemption once the house is no longer your principal residence (which raises the property tax bill), and whether market rent actually covers the full payment with taxes and insurance. If it does not, you are funding a monthly shortfall and should count that as the price of waiting. Our [relocation page](/situations/relocation-texas) covers the move-on-a-deadline version of this decision.

### 4. Let a buyer assume the loan, if it is FHA or VA

This is the option low-equity owners most often overlook. FHA and VA loans are generally assumable with the servicer's approval, which means a qualified buyer can take over your existing loan at its existing rate. A loan written near 5.5% in 2022 is worth something to a buyer facing the 7.18% that Freddie Mac reported on November 5, 2026.

Thin equity helps here. The usual obstacle to an assumption is that the buyer has to cover the gap between the price and the loan balance in cash, and when that gap is small, more buyers can do it. The trade-offs: servicers can be slow to process assumptions, the buyer has to qualify, and a veteran whose VA loan is assumed by a non-veteran can have entitlement tied up until that loan is paid off. Ask your servicer for its assumption package and timeline before you market the house this way. Most conventional loans are not assumable.

### 5. Sell and bring cash, or sell on a short sale

If the house has to go and the net does not cover the payoff, there are only two ways to release the lien. You bring the difference to closing, or the servicer agrees in writing to accept less than it is owed. That second path is a short sale.

A short sale is the servicer's decision, not the buyer's or yours, and approval commonly takes months. Two things to settle before you sign:

- **The deficiency.** Read the approval letter to see whether the servicer waives the unpaid balance or reserves the right to collect it. If the house instead goes to foreclosure, Texas Property Code §51.003 gives a lender two years after the sale to sue for a deficiency and lets the borrower ask the court to credit the property's fair market value. A Texas real-estate attorney should read the paperwork either way.
- **The tax bill.** Forgiven debt can be reported on a Form 1099-C as federal income. The principal-residence exclusion that covered most of these cases expired on January 1, 2026, apart from written agreements signed before that date. Insolvency and bankruptcy exclusions may still apply. That is a CPA question.

Our [underwater and short sale page](/situations/short-sale-texas) goes deeper on short sales and deeds-in-lieu.

### 6. Compare an as-is cash sale, honestly

Here is the straight version of where a buyer like us fits. Diamond Acquisitions is a direct cash buyer. We buy for our own account, we are not licensed real estate agents, and we do not list homes.

Our offer math is **after-repair value × 75% to 80%, minus repairs**, and **85% to 92% of value on clean, light-rehab houses**. On the $350,000 house above in clean condition, that is roughly $297,500 to $322,000 before any repair deduction, against a payoff near $311,200. Sometimes that clears the loan. Often, on a newer house with a nearly full-size loan, it does not, and a listing, an assumption, or staying put will serve you better. [How much a cash buyer will pay for a Texas house](/insights/how-much-will-a-cash-buyer-pay-texas) shows the formula in more detail.

A cash sale earns its place in three situations:

- **The house needs work.** Foundation movement, a roof at the end of its life, or a failed system can stop a financed buyer at the appraisal or inspection. Repairs you cannot fund are a selling cost too, and an as-is sale removes them along with commissions and concessions.
- **There is a deadline.** A posted foreclosure date, a job that starts in three weeks, or a divorce decree does not wait for a 60-day listing.
- **You have more equity than you think.** Owners who put 20% down, or who bought before 2021, usually have room. In the example above, a 20% down payment leaves a balance near $262,000.

If you send us the address and a payoff figure, we will give you a written number and tell you plainly whether it clears the loan. If it does not, we will say so.

## What to do this week

1. Request a payoff statement from your servicer.
2. Get a current value: a CMA from a Texas-licensed agent for the retail number, and a cash offer if the house needs repairs or you are on a clock.
3. Run the break-even math above with your real figures.
4. If the answer is a shortfall and you cannot afford the payment, call your servicer and a HUD-approved housing counselor before the next due date.
5. If the loan is FHA or VA, ask for the assumption package.

The reports will keep coming. Our [weekly Texas and DFW market report](/insights/texas-dfw-market-report-2026-11-09) tracks rates, pending sales, and price cuts every Monday. None of it changes the two numbers that decide your case: what you owe and what your specific house will sell for. When you want the cash side of that comparison, [tell us about your Texas property](/sell) and we will give you an honest number with no obligation.

*Sources: Cotality, "US home price insights — November 2026" (published November 3, 2026; data through September 2026); ICE Mortgage Monitor, November 2026 (released November 9, 2026), metro negative-equity and price figures as excerpted by Calculated Risk; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (November 5, 2026, and June 2022 weekly readings); Texas Property Code §51.003; IRS Publication 4681. Loan balances, net proceeds, and shortfalls are our own arithmetic on illustrative figures. This article is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.*