Mortgage rates rose again this week, and the move now has a streak attached: Freddie Mac’s 30-year average reached its seventh straight weekly increase. This is the second edition of our weekly Texas and Dallas–Fort Worth market report. We compare against last week’s report, and we add the first hard local numbers for August from the North Texas MLS.
What moved this week: the 30-year rate is now 7.40%
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.40% on October 8, 2026. A week earlier it was 7.28%, and a year ago it was 6.30%. That is another 12 basis points in a week and 110 basis points over twelve months. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.73%, up from 6.60%. Fox Business reported it as the seventh consecutive weekly increase.
The driver is the bond market, not a new Fed decision. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 5.28% this week, about 9 basis points higher than the week before. Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner described the mix as inflation expectations, a broad bond-market selloff, and rising fiscal deficits. The Fed did raise its target range to 3.75%–4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and we cover how that flows through in our piece on what a Fed rate hike could mean for DFW real estate.
The October 28 Fed meeting
The next FOMC meeting concludes October 28. After a weak September jobs report, with employers adding just 29,000 nonfarm jobs, reporting put market-implied odds of an October hike at about 17% as of midweek per CME FedWatch, down from earlier readings. The September FOMC minutes showed most participants thought another increase by year end would likely be appropriate. Those are odds and expectations, not decisions. We are not forecasting the Fed, and mortgage rates can move even when the Fed does not.
What 7.40% does to a monthly payment
On a $300,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest is about $1,857 a month at last year’s 6.30% average and about $2,077 at 7.40%. That is roughly $220 more every month, or about $2,640 a year. Last week’s 7.28% worked out to about $2,053, so this week’s step alone added about $24 a month. Taxes, insurance, and any mortgage insurance sit on top of that figure.
Week-over-week: what changed since October 5
| Measure | Oct 1 | Oct 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 7.28% | 7.40% |
| 15-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 6.60% | 6.73% |
| Monthly P&I on $300,000, 30-year | about $2,053 | about $2,077 |
No new Texas statewide monthly release came out this week, so the TRERC July figures we cited last week remain the latest statewide official numbers. Those showed 32,306 closed sales (up 2.2% year over year), a $339,000 median price (unchanged from a year earlier), 5.5 months of inventory, and 63 days on market, according to TRERC’s September Texas Housing Insight (July data, revised). TRERC also reported a median seller price cut of $13,000, or 3.6% of the initial list price. Its page notes that preliminary August data point to a further easing of downward price pressure, while pending sales pointed to weaker August sales. That is a preliminary read, not a final release.
New this week: August data for Dallas–Fort Worth
The North Texas Real Estate Information System (NTREIS) August 2026 report, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center, covers the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington metro. For single-family homes:
- Closed sales: 7,329, down 5% from August 2025.
- Median price: $390,000, flat year over year. The average price was about $509,000, up 1%.
- Active listings: 31,072, down 6% year over year.
- Months of inventory: 4.3.
- New listings: 10,219, down 10%.
- Pending sales: 6,620, down 11%.
- Median days on market: 58, unchanged year over year.
- Sold-to-list-price ratio: 94.8%.
Two things stand out. First, pending sales fell faster than closed sales, which is a signal that September and October closings will be soft, and this was before rates crossed 7%. Second, supply is also shrinking: with new listings down 10% and active listings down 6%, DFW has not been flooded with houses. Fewer buyers and fewer sellers is what a stalled market looks like, and it is why prices have held steadier than the sales count. Sellers were collecting about 94.8% of the list price on average, so a typical sale still involves a negotiated discount.
Condos and townhomes behave differently. Condo inventory stood at 8.7 months of supply in the same report, while townhomes were at 5.9, so a single metro-wide number hides real differences by property type. As always, results vary block by block across the metro.
What it means for sellers
If you plan to sell a Texas house, the main effects land on the buyer side:
- Price to the market you have. A 94.8% sold-to-list ratio means a typical listing nets less than its asking price. Pricing for last spring’s rates invites price cuts.
- Expect concession requests. With payments up about $220 a month on a $300,000 loan, buyers ask for rate buydowns, repair credits, and closing-cost help. Build them into your net proceeds.
- Carrying costs keep running. Taxes, insurance, utilities, and a mortgage payment accrue every month. For a vacant property, see what a vacant house actually costs in Texas.
- Condition is a bigger filter. Financing-sensitive buyers skip houses that need work.
None of this means you must sell. It means the cost of waiting is worth a number. If your house needs repairs, has a code or title problem, or you are on a deadline, a direct as-is sale can be cleaner, and you can weigh it against listing using our cash offer vs. listing breakdown. Our guide to how a cash offer is calculated explains the method, and our any-condition situations page covers what we buy. To get a number, tell us about your Texas property. Diamond Acquisitions is a direct cash buyer, not a real estate agent, and we do not list homes.
What it means for investors
Rising rates hit investors twice: your financing costs rise, and so do the payments of the retail buyer you eventually sell to.
- Hold the margin. Our standard offer math is ARV × 75–80% − repairs on a typical flip, and 85–92% of ARV on clean, light-rehab deals. For a $300,000 after-repair value and $40,000 in repairs, that gives a maximum offer of $185,000 to $200,000. Higher carrying and exit costs argue for the conservative end.
- Stress-test the exit. Median days on market is 58 in DFW and pending sales are falling, so model a 90-day exit, not 45.
- Underwrite the exit buyer’s payment. Work backward from what a retail buyer can afford at roughly 7.4%, not from last year’s comps.
- Use the data on rentals. Single-family leases in the NTREIS report were flat in count and priced at a $2,395 median, a useful check for hold-and-rent math. See our guide on how to analyze a Texas rental property.
For the broader framework, read our Q4 2026 Texas investment property numbers. Investors who want deals as they come can browse the investor marketplace.
What we are watching next week
- Whether Freddie Mac’s average extends the streak above 7.40% or the 10-year yield retraces.
- The next TRERC statewide monthly release with August data.
- September NTREIS figures, when published.
- Fed commentary ahead of the October 28 decision.
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 1 and October 8, 2026) as reported by Fox Business; NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report, August 2026, prepared by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M (data dated 9/7/2026); TRERC Texas Housing Insight, September 2026 (July data); reporting on CME FedWatch odds and the September FOMC minutes. Payment figures are our own arithmetic on Freddie Mac survey rates. This report is general information, not financial or investment advice.