Mortgage rates dipped this week, but buyers did not return. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average fell to 7.32%, its first weekly decline after two readings at 7.40%, while Redfin reported U.S. pending home sales at the lowest level in its records. September data for Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston is now out, and it shows fewer sales than a year ago and flat prices. This is the fourth edition of our weekly Texas and DFW market report. We compare against last week’s report and flag what is new.
What moved this week: the 30-year rate eased to 7.32%
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.32% on October 22, 2026, down from 7.40% on October 15 and up from 6.19% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.68%, down from 6.71%. Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said the average declined this week, offering some relief to prospective homebuyers.
Eight basis points is small. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields, especially the 10-year Treasury, more closely than the Fed’s policy rate, and the survey averages applications from the prior Thursday through Wednesday, so it lags the market by a few days. Treat one down week as a data point, not a turn.
What 7.32% does to a monthly payment
On a $300,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest is about $1,835 a month at last year’s 6.19% and about $2,061 at 7.32%. That is roughly $225 more every month, or about $2,700 a year, before taxes, insurance, and any mortgage insurance. Versus last week’s 7.40%, the payment dropped by only about $16 a month. These are our own arithmetic on Freddie Mac’s survey rates.
Week-over-week: what changed since October 19
| Measure | Oct 15 | Oct 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 7.40% | 7.32% |
| 15-year fixed (Freddie Mac) | 6.71% | 6.68% |
| Monthly P&I on $300,000, 30-year | about $2,077 | about $2,061 |
| Redfin pending sales, U.S. (4 weeks ending) | Oct 11 | 281,749 (Oct 18), record low |
The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4% on September 16 and meets again October 27–28. Last week we cited market odds of roughly 47% for an October hike after the September inflation report. Previews published around October 22 pointed the other way, citing CME FedWatch pricing of roughly a 90% chance of a hold, with a December hike now the focus of market speculation. Sources differ on the exact figures, and they move with every data release and speech. We do not forecast Fed decisions. For the mechanics of how a hike reaches a DFW buyer, read what a Fed rate hike could mean for DFW real estate.
National demand: Redfin’s pending sales hit a record low
Redfin’s report for the four weeks ending October 18 said seasonally adjusted pending sales fell to 281,749, down 14.4% from a year earlier and 1.9% from the prior week, the lowest level in Redfin’s records, which begin in 2021. For the second week in a row, pending sales declined in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metro areas. Redfin put the median monthly housing payment for a buyer at $2,796 at roughly 7.4% rates.
Prices are flat rather than collapsing: the national median sale price was $390,614, up 0.2% year over year. Median days on market was 50, 21.7% of listings had a price drop, and the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.4%. Redfin reported months of supply at 4.4 and active listings up 2.1% year over year. The week before, Redfin said the median U.S. asking price fell 0.3% year over year, its first decline since March, and that 22% of sellers with active listings had cut their price, the highest share in its records.
Redfin’s metro table showed new listings down 11.1% in Dallas, 9.5% in Fort Worth, and 17.4% in San Antonio over the period, and Austin’s median sale price down 2.8% year over year. Fewer new listings means some Texas owners are pulling back, not just buyers.
Texas and DFW: September data arrives
This is the week the September monthly numbers surfaced. Last week we were still working from August NTREIS data and the Texas Real Estate Research Center’s July statewide baseline. Two caveats: provider definitions differ, and some figures below reach us secondhand through local summaries, so verify against the primary reports before relying on them for a decision.
Dallas–Fort Worth, September 2026
The Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M, as summarized by Norada Real Estate, reported for the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington metro:
- Home sales: 7,228, down 6.61% from September 2025. Single-family sales were about 6,800.
- Median price: $379,990 for all types, down 1.56%. The single-family median was $384,900, down 1.31%.
- Active listings: 34,501 at month-end, down 2.17%, with 4.5 months of supply.
- Sale price vs. original list: 93.83%, versus 93.58% a year earlier.
- Year to date: January through September sales were up 0.11%, while the year-to-date median price was down about 2%.
- By price tier: sales fell 9.95% in the $300,000–$400,000 range and 13.47% in the $400,000–$500,000 range, while sales above $1 million rose 14.32%.
A separate summary of the NTREIS MLS report published by Ponyup Properties put the single-family median at $385,000 (down 1%), closed sales at 6,759 (down 7%), active listings at 31,325, and months of inventory at 4.3. Those line up with TRERC on direction even where the exact counts differ. Compared with August’s NTREIS figures covered in last week’s edition, closed sales and the median price are lower, and active listings are roughly flat.
Greater Houston, September 2026
The Houston Association of Realtors reported, as covered by My Neighborhood News, 7,030 single-family sales, down 5.7%, and a median price of $325,000, down 0.3%. Active listings rose 6.3% to 40,192, months of inventory rose to 5.5 from 5.1, and pending sales fell 11.6% to 6,789. Houston is softer than DFW on supply and contracts.
What the pattern says
Across both metros, sales are down mid-single digits, prices are roughly flat to slightly lower, and mid-priced homes are moving slowest. The metro-wide median hides large differences by price tier, block, and property condition. For the statewide quarterly view, see our Texas Q3 2026 housing report. The next statewide TRERC release will add the full picture.
What it means for sellers
- Price for the buyer you have. With pending sales at record lows and a payment near $2,060 a month on a $300,000 loan, buyers are shopping by payment. Pricing to last spring invites price cuts, and 22% of U.S. sellers have already cut.
- Budget for concessions. Seller-paid closing costs, rate buydowns, and repair credits are common asks. Subtract them from your net before comparing options.
- Watch the carrying cost. Every month on the market includes taxes, insurance, utilities, and upkeep. Empty houses cost more; see what a vacant house actually costs in Texas.
- Condition matters more when financing is tight. Appraisals and inspection requests make houses that need work harder to sell on the retail market.
None of this means you must sell now. If your house is in good shape and you can carry it, a Texas-licensed agent can price a listing for you. If the house needs repairs, has a title or code problem, or you are on a deadline, a direct as-is sale can be simpler. Our cash offer vs. listing breakdown compares the two on net proceeds, and the any-condition situations page explains what we buy. When you are ready for a number, tell us about your Texas property. Diamond Acquisitions is a direct cash buyer, not a real estate agent, and we do not list homes.
What it means for investors
Soft retail demand makes the exit the hard part of a deal.
- Hold the margin. Our offer math on a typical flip is ARV × 75–80% − repairs, and 85–92% of ARV on clean, light-rehab deals. For a $300,000 after-repair value and $40,000 in repairs, that is a maximum offer of roughly $185,000 to $200,000. Weak pending sales argue for the conservative end.
- Stretch the exit timeline. With Redfin showing a 50-day national median and DFW sale prices averaging about 94% of original list price, model a 90-day exit rather than 45.
- Underwrite the exit buyer’s payment. Work backward from what a retail buyer can afford near 7.3%, not from last year’s comps. Mid-priced tiers are the slowest segment in September’s DFW data.
- Check rental yields against Treasury yields. A rental has to pay for the risk against a risk-free alternative. Our guide on how to analyze a Texas rental property shows the method.
For the broader framework, read our Q4 2026 Texas investment property numbers. Investors who want to see deals as they come can browse the investor marketplace.
What we are watching next week
- The Fed’s decision on October 28 and the tone of the statement.
- Whether Freddie Mac’s October 29 reading extends this week’s dip or reverses it.
- Further pending-sales data from Redfin, to see whether the record low was a floor.
- The next TRERC statewide release and any NTREIS confirmation of the September figures.
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 15 and October 22, 2026); Redfin weekly housing market reports (October 15 and October 22, 2026); Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M September 2026 Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington data as summarized by Norada Real Estate (October 22, 2026); NTREIS MLS Summary Report September 2026 as summarized by Ponyup Properties; Houston Association of Realtors September 2026 Housing Market Update (October 14, 2026) as reported by My Neighborhood News; CME FedWatch pricing as cited in October 22–26 FOMC previews. Payment figures are our own arithmetic on Freddie Mac survey rates. This report is general information, not financial or investment advice.