Two numbers landed this week, and sellers will feel both of them. On Wednesday, October 14, the government’s September inflation report came in hotter than expected. On Thursday, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate was still 7.40%, the highest reading since late 2023. The Federal Reserve meets again October 27–28. If you own a Texas house and you are thinking about selling, this is a good week to turn those headlines into a plan.
This article is not a forecast. We do not know what the Fed will do or where mortgage rates will be in December, and anyone who tells you with certainty is guessing. What we can do is lay out what was reported, what it does to the person who would buy your house, and which seller situations make waiting expensive. Last week’s update on the rate streak is in our Texas and DFW market report for October 12. This piece covers what is new since then.
What was reported this week
Inflation re-accelerated
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September consumer price index on October 14, 2026. As CBS News reported, prices rose 3.7% over the 12 months to September, up from 3.4% in each of the prior two months. Economists had expected 3.6%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.6% year over year, up from 2.4% in August and above the 2.5% forecast.
The headline number was driven largely by energy. CBS reported gasoline up 9.1% in the month and 34.2% from a year earlier, and said gasoline accounted for more than half of the month’s increase. Energy overall was up 20.4% from a year ago. The Texas Real Estate Research Center made the same point in its October Texas Economic Outlook, released October 9, saying oil prices “remain a key contributor to heightened inflation and inflation volatility.”
For a homeowner, the detail that matters is that inflation is not a housing-only story right now. It is mostly a fuel story that has spilled into the bond market, and the bond market is what prices mortgages.
Mortgage rates held at a three-year high
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released October 15, put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40%, unchanged from the prior week and the highest since November 2023. A year ago it was about 6.27%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%, a hair below the prior week’s 6.73%. The flat reading ended a run of weekly increases that, by the count of earlier reports, had reached seven straight weeks.
One flat week is not a turning point. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates follow closely, was reported at about 5.19% on Wednesday, and Yahoo Finance reported it fell nearly 10 basis points to roughly 5.1% on Thursday amid a tech-stock sell-off. A move like that can pull mortgage rates down if it holds. It can also reverse in a day.
The Fed’s next move is a coin flip
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4% in September, its first hike since 2023. CBS reported that after the inflation data, Capital Economics’ Stephen Brown said markets moved to about a 50% chance of another hike at the October 27–28 meeting, up from about 20% before the report. The odds we cited in our October 12 report were lower, which tells you how quickly this has shifted. The meeting after that is December 8–9.
We are not predicting a hike or a hold. Market odds are a snapshot of what traders expect, not a decision.
Why the Fed meeting matters less than people think
It is tempting to wait for the Fed and then act. Two facts make that a weak plan.
First, the Fed does not set mortgage rates. It sets a short-term overnight target. A 30-year mortgage follows long-term yields. In its October outlook, TRERC reported that the 10-year Treasury yield rose 54 basis points to 5.29% in September, that the 30-year mortgage rate rose from 6.66% to 7.03% over the same period, and that the spread between the two narrowed from 191 to 174 basis points. In other words, the mortgage rate is following the 10-year, and the 10-year is responding to inflation, deficits, and heavy corporate borrowing, not only to the Fed. TRERC’s report also cited financial market experts who believe the AI-related debt buildout could be a major driver of the recent surge in long-term rates.
Second, a Fed move can already be priced in. Rates sometimes jump before a hike and fall after it. So the headline on October 28 may matter less to your buyer’s payment than the 10-year yield the week before.
If you are planning around “after the Fed meets,” you are planning around a date that may not change the number you care about.
What 7.40% does to the person buying your house
Sellers do not pay the mortgage rate, but they feel it through the buyer’s monthly payment. Here is the arithmetic on principal and interest alone, for a 30-year fixed loan:
| Loan amount | At 6.27% (a year ago) | At 7.40% (now) | Difference per month |
|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 | about $1,851 | about $2,077 | about $226 |
| $350,000 | about $2,160 | about $2,423 | about $263 |
Taxes, insurance, and any mortgage insurance come on top of those figures, and Texas property taxes are among the heaviest in the country. Our guide to the 2026 Texas property tax bill and homestead exemption shows how quickly that line item adds up.
The practical effect is that buyers shopping by monthly payment either buy a cheaper house, ask you for help, or wait. In the DFW numbers we reported on October 12, North Texas Real Estate Information System data for August showed single-family pending sales down 11% and new listings down 10% from a year earlier, with a median of 58 days on market and a sold-to-list-price ratio of about 94.8%. That is a market where sellers are still getting deals done, but where a typical sale involves a negotiated discount. These are metro-wide averages; your block may behave differently.
Where TRERC sees demand going
TRERC called job growth “a key leading indicator of housing demand and, consequently, home price growth.” Its October outlook reported Texas employment up 1.0% year over year in August, against about 0.3% nationally, with Austin contracting and the other large metros growing. It also noted that the September national jobs report showed just 29,000 jobs added and that the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Texas is holding up better than the country, which supports demand. Slowing national hiring and higher rates push the other way.
What this means if you plan to list the traditional way
If your house is in good shape, you are not in a hurry, and you can carry the costs, listing in a 7.40% market is workable. It just requires realistic math. Use a Texas-licensed agent’s comparative market analysis for pricing, since that is their job and not ours, and then plan around these points.
- Price for today’s payment, not last spring’s. A buyer’s budget is a monthly figure. When rates rise about 113 basis points in a year, the same budget buys less house.
- Build concessions into your net. Rate buydowns, repair credits, and closing-cost help are common asks when payments are stretched. Treat them as probable, not a surprise.
- Expect a longer timeline. Plan for the median days on market in your area plus the time between contract and closing, and ask what happens to your costs if that stretches.
- Fix what a lender will care about. Financed buyers need appraisals and inspections to clear. Roof, foundation, electrical, and plumbing issues become negotiating points quickly. Our cost guides, such as foundation repair costs in Texas and roof replacement costs in DFW, help you price the problem before a buyer does.
When waiting costs more than the rate
Waiting for lower rates is a reasonable plan when nothing is forcing your hand. It is an expensive plan in these situations:
- A vacant house. Taxes, insurance, utilities, and upkeep continue every month with no one living there. We break the numbers down in what a vacant house costs in Texas.
- Deferred repairs. A known roof, foundation, or HVAC problem does not get cheaper, and a financed buyer’s inspector will find it. See our estimates for HVAC replacement in Texas if the system is the issue.
- Mortgage trouble. Late fees, legal costs, and interest add to the payoff every month, and a sale date set by the lender will not wait for the bond market. If that is you, read your options when you are behind on mortgage payments in Texas and the Texas foreclosure timeline.
- An inherited house or an estate. Several heirs, carrying costs, and probate steps make a long hold harder. Our probate cost guide sets out the numbers.
- A hard deadline. A job transfer, a divorce, or a military move cannot be scheduled around a Fed calendar.
In each of these, the cost of waiting is a number you can calculate: monthly carrying costs times the months you expect to wait. A possible rate drop is a maybe. Put the certain cost next to the maybe before you decide.
Where a cash sale fits, and where it does not
Diamond Acquisitions is a direct cash buyer. We are not a real estate agent, we do not list houses, and we do not represent sellers. We buy for our own account, which is why the offer does not depend on a buyer’s mortgage rate, appraisal, or loan approval. That is the one thing that does not change when the 30-year rate moves.
The tradeoff is price, and it is a real one. Our offers are calculated from the after-repair value of the property: ARV × 75–80% minus repairs for a house that needs work, and about 85–92% of ARV for a clean house with light cosmetic needs. As an illustration, for a house with a $300,000 after-repair value and $40,000 in needed repairs, that formula produces an offer of roughly $185,000 to $200,000. A fully repaired, well-priced listing might net more on paper, but only after you pay for repairs, carry the house, absorb concessions, and wait through the sale and the buyer’s financing. Our cash offer vs. listing comparison walks through that math side by side, and how your cash offer is calculated explains each input.
A cash sale is not right for everyone. If your house is move-in ready, you have time, and you can price it well, a traditional listing may net you more. A direct as-is sale tends to make sense when repairs, title or code problems, a deadline, or carrying costs outweigh the discount. Our any-condition situations page lists what we buy, and if you want a number to compare against your own estimate, you can request a no-obligation cash offer.
A simple checklist before the Fed meets
- Write down your monthly carrying cost for the house: mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities, upkeep.
- Estimate your time to sell at the median days on market in your area, plus 30 to 45 days for contract to close.
- Get a Texas-licensed agent’s CMA and a repair estimate so you know your realistic listing price and net.
- Get a cash number if the house needs work or you are on a clock, so you have a real alternative to compare.
- Decide your walk-away date. If the house is not sold by a date you choose, what will you do?
None of these steps depends on what the Fed does on October 28, which is the point.
What we are watching next
- Whether Freddie Mac’s average stays at 7.40%, drops with the 10-year Treasury, or resumes climbing in next Thursday’s reading.
- The outcome of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting and the Fed’s statement.
- TRERC’s next statewide housing release and September NTREIS data for DFW.
We will fold those into the next weekly report. In the meantime, the numbers above are as of October 14–15, 2026, and they will change.